Cuts to foreign aid by the US, UK, France, Germany and Netherlands, could lead to between 4.4 and 10.8 million additional HIV cases by 2030. These findings come as part of a new study published in The Lancet medical journal on Thursday, March 27.

The research was conducted as the five countries, which provide over 90% of international HIV funding, are all either considering or implementing aid reductions.

The US previously provided 73% of donations, helping to reduce new infections by an average of 8% each year since 2010. However, on January 20, the Trump administration paused funding from USAID and the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), putting a significant amount of the progress made over the last 25 years at risk. 

The move significantly impacts low and middle-income countries, including several in sub-Saharan Africa. As well as rising case numbers, the study showed that there could be an additional 800,000 to 2.93 million HIV-related deaths in the next five years. However, if support from PEPFAR could be reinstated or recovered, these figures would reduce to between 70,000 to 1.73 million additional new cases and 5,000 to 61,000 deaths.

Dr Debra ten Brink, one of the co-authors of the research, noted: “The current cuts to PEPFAR and USAID-supported programmes have already disrupted access to essential HIV services including for antiretroviral therapy and HIV prevention and testing.”

She added: “Looking ahead, if other donor countries reduce funding, decades of progress to treat and prevent HIV could be unravelled. It is imperative to secure sustainable financing and avoid a resurgence of the HIV epidemic which could have devastating consequences, not just in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, but globally.”

HIV activists in Ireland have similarly criticised the cuts, saying, “Millions will die of AIDS without urgent intervention”.

“Globally, we are witnessing devastation. Trump’s cuts are shutting down clinics, leaving people without medication, collapsing health systems, and fueling a full-blown public health crisis.”

Addressing President Michael D. Higgins, the activists urged: “Ireland has always been a force for justice. Will we now stay silent to avoid economic retaliation? Your voice can rally global support. We urge you to use every diplomatic channel to condemn these brutal cuts and defend the right to health for all.”