This Sunday, February 23, Germany will hold its election earlier than planned after the government—then consisting of the ‘traffic-light coalition’ of centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and free-market liberal Free Democratic party (FDP)—collapsed in early November 2024 over a disagreement on how to prevent a multibillion-euro deficit in budget plans for 2025. With the conservative Union of Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) leading in opinion polls, followed by the in parts confirmed right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD), the future of hard-won queer rights seems unsure. 

The ‘traffic-light coalition’ paved the way for securing rights such as the Self-Determination Act for the trans community, which has only been in effect since November 1, 2024. However, the upcoming election might be a watershed, as the Independent called it. That same Self-Determination Act, which grants someone the right to change their legal name and gender easier than before, by declaring the change at a local registry, is strongly opposed by both the Union (CDU/CSU) and the AfD. Both parties want to revoke the law if in government. 

The Union of CDU/CSU, currently leading in polls with 30% and hence likely to appoint the next German chancellor, states in its election manifesto its opposition to gender-affirming surgery for minors and demands prior psychological consultation before changing one’s gender. For adults, the Union also claim such a change should not be made on a whim, as the manifesto phrases it. It seems, the Union wants to return to the state before the Act, which involved psychologists asking often intrusive questions, answers of which were needed for expensive certificates. 

The AfD ranks second in the polls with 20%, another source of concern for the LGBTQ+ community. The party’s election manifesto is filled with anti-immigration plans, but it also reflects the party’s transphobic and homophobic views. Paradoxically, AfD’s chancellor candidate Alice Weidel is married to a Sri Lankan-born woman, raising two children with her in Switzerland. 

While Weidel usually tries to avoid questions about her private life, leading up to the election this contradiction between Weidel’s party’s views and her own life was brought up by voters in an ARD TV segment, where they could ask questions directly to the chancellor candidates.

A woman noted that the AfD’s election manifesto defines family as consisting of a father, a mother and children. Weidel said that this was just “a role model of a family, which I also represent.” At the same time, she said same-sex partnerships should be equal to marriage “without touching the institute of marriage between man and woman”.

Not satisfied with that answer, the voter asked Weidel if she believes AfD politician Björn Höcke, who represents the most far-right parts of the AfD, would agree with her. Weidel laughed and said she thinks so. However, statements from AfD members on the party’s definition of family shown in a ZDF TV feature on Alice Weidel suggest that not everyone agrees with her. 

The AfD has even proposed to bring forward an application in the Bundestag, the German federal parliament, to abolish same-sex marriage again, though a majority for this proposal seems unlikely. 

Furthermore, the AfD wants to ban gender studies at universities. Its manifesto also states minors should be protected from what it calls “an indoctrination through the trans cult, early sexualisation and gender ideology”, wanting to stop any “state funding for this”. The party plans to ban gender-affirming care like puberty blockers for minors and wants similar regulations for gender change as the Union. 

Though the AfD seems more radical in its plans, another common ground between AfD and the Union is its opposition to gender-neutral language. The Union, led by chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, opposes gender-neutral language expressed with asterisks (*), colons (:) or underscores (_) in schools, universities, public authorities and broadcasting. Arguing it would exclude and patronise people, the Union positions itself against what it calls an obligation to use gender-neutral language for ideological reasons. 

Regarding the rights of other members of the queer community in Germany, CDU/CSU’s election manifesto has been vague by only stating that same-sex relationships should be respected. 

However, the LSVD, Germany’s LGBTQ+ umbrella group, has asked the seven big parties competing in the election eight questions regarding different queer rights. The Union has received poor reviews in all of them and some of its plans have even been marked as dangerous for the community. For example, there is no mention of any measures to help rainbow families facilitate legal processes such as parental recognition. 

Chancellor candidate Merz himself recently said in a TV debate that he could understand Trump’s decision to only recognise two genders in the US, which he received criticism for even from within his own party. The association of Lesbians and Gays in the Union (LSU) countered the party leader’s statement with an Instagram post which stated that they accept the existence of more than two binary genders.

The AfD on the other hand has declared the existence of only two binary genders in its manifesto. 

Many queer people in Germany are afraid of a political U-turn after the election on Sunday, forcing the community to fight for the preservation of already existing rights instead of hoping for new concessions to come. The ‘traffic-light coalition’ had planned to do more for the LGBTQ+ community but ran out of time to realise those promises. With a looming political shift to the right, tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Germany last weekend, standing up for queer rights under the slogan ‘Wähl’ Liebe’ (Vote for love). 

Even though CDU leader Friedrich Merz has repeatedly maintained that the party will not form a coalition with the right-wing AfD in case of his likely election as the next German chancellor, a great number of voters are distrustful of his words. 

Merz broke a taboo in German politics three weeks ago by accepting votes from the far-right party as he pushed through a non-binding motion on tougher immigration rules, as the BBC reported. Though he claimed to not have actively sought out collaboration with the AfD, this sparked mass protests and even Angela Merkel, former CDU chancellor of Germany, published a statement condemning his actions. 

Based on pre-election polls, SPD, Greens and the Left also have a good chance of getting seats in the Bundestag. They have all received positive reviews from the LSVD’s pre-election questions regarding the future of queer rights in Germany. However, forming a coalition with suitable partners after Sunday and securing a stable majority of seats together might be a tricky task for the future government.